Iran’s top targets in retaliatory strikes likely to include key Israeli infrastructure, US bases
Iran would prioritize Israel and U.S. military bases in the Middle East if war breaks out with Washington, according to an analysis published by the Alma Research and Education Center.
The report said Iran would likely strike Israel with missiles and drones even if it is not directly involved in U.S. attacks.
Tehran could also mobilize proxies including the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Hezbollah expected to play the largest role. Potential targets in Israel include military sites, critical infrastructure, airports and major cities, similar to those hit during the 12-day war in June.
Iran and its proxies could also attempt terrorist attacks or sabotage inside Israel, actions that may have limited operational impact but could undermine public confidence and show the ability to penetrate the country. Israeli and Jewish targets abroad, including embassies, community institutions, diplomats and their families, could also be at risk.
Alma identified U.S. bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates as high-priority targets because they serve as key refueling and repair hubs. American forces in Iraq could face attacks from Shiite militias aligned with Iran, increasing the cost of the U.S. presence and political pressure to scale back involvement. The U.S. naval presence in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea could also be targeted using anti-ship missiles, drones and other naval tactics.
The report warned that Iran could launch cyberattacks on power grids, financial institutions and civilian systems to inflict economic harm and erode public confidence, alongside disinformation campaigns aimed at heightening insecurity, deepening divisions, portraying the United States as unstable and undermining support for its actions.
Russia and China could back Iran through cyber operations, perception-based warfare, intelligence and diplomacy.
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